MANILA: Philippine exports, both services and goods — may not grow at all this year, at best, amid muted global trade, a top private sector official of the Export Development Council (EDC) said.
Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. and EDC private sector vice-chairman, said that he personally believed that total export performance could end either flat or negative for the full year, compared to the downward-revised 3% 2016 EDC target.
“Right now, the target is 3% which includes services. Unfortunately… baka even the 3% is difficult to beat,” he said in a Sept. 29 telephone interview. “At the moment, personally, I haven’t seen the projections yet. Mukhang magne-negative pa… it’s possible na mag-flat or even it would be negative.”
Composed of officials from both the government and the private sector, the EDC last July revised its 2016 and 2017 targets for total exports to 3% for both years from previous forecasts of 6.6-8.8% and 7.7-10.6% respectively.
According to a Sept. 20 news release on EDC’s Web site, the 3% targets took into account the positive contribution (9%) from services that will offset the 0% expected from shipment of goods. However, Mr. Ortiz-Luis said that even this may no longer be the case for this year.
“Baka di kaya bitbitin ng services. (Services may not be able to deliver the total target.) ‘Yan ang opinion ko until we meet,” he said, referring to an EDC meeting to be held in the middle of this month. He said his personal expectation took “in[to] account… slowdown of our exports in relation to global trade.”
Mr. Ortiz-Luis’s remarks come after the World Trade Organization (WTO) revised last month its global trade forecast to 1.7% for 2016 — down from an April estimate of 2.8% — the slowest pace in global trade expansion since the financial crisis more than half a decade ago. Moreover, the WTO cut its 2017 projection to a range of 1.8-3.1% from 3.6% previously, citing weakness in key regions and rising protectionism around the globe.
As worrying as the global outlook may be for trade-oriented countries, some officials believe that this may not automatically prevent the Philippines from hitting current official forecasts.
Senen M. Perlada, director of the Department of Trade and Industry’s Export Marketing Bureau and EDC executive director, said official export targets may “not necessarily” have to change. “Economic forecasts may be reviewed and targets revisited but not necessarily to be revised further,” he said in Sept. 29 mobile phone message.