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Home Op-Ed Features & Analyses

Potentials of economic growth

byDr. Aftab Afzal
04/06/2015
in Features & Analyses, Op-Ed
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Pakistan is 26th country in terms of purchasing power parity, having per capita of $4,886, making it middle income country in the world. However, according to British economist Jim O’Neill, the country has the potential to become the 18th largest economy of the world by 2050, leaving behind many strong economies such as Germany. Jim O’Neill had earlier coined the term BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2001, analysing their potential to become the world’s most powerful economies. He has coined another term MINT – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, projecting their economies to see the strong growth in the coming decades. Currently, Pakistan is 42nd largest economy of the world in nominal terms as its GDP stands at $225.14 billion, but his projections is that Pakistan would become the 18th largest economy in the world by 2050 with a GDP of US$3.33 trillion, reaching the size of the current German economy. It means Pakistan’s economy would grow 15 times more in the next 35 years and chances are bright after economic cooperation with China.

The country has unique geographical location and the proposed economic corridor will open new vistas of economic prosperity not only in Pakistan, but also in the region. The MINT countries will also try to exploit their geographical locations as Mexico is a sandwich between US and Latin America. Indonesia is at the center of South-east Asia having deep connections with China while Turkey is both in Asia and Europe. Nigeria can avail the opportunity of enhancing its trade with neighbouring states if peace is restored in the region.

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According to experts, Mexico, Indonesia and Nigeria – are commodity producers and only Turkey is not while Brazil and Russia are commodity producers but China and India are not. In terms of wealth, Mexico and Turkey earn about $10,000 per head annually. There is problem with India as a majority of world’s poorest people live in that country without access to basic necessities of life. The major problem in Pakistan is management and lack of infrastructure. Despite making attractive policies, there is lackluster response from the international investors due to energy crisis and security situation. The government will have to go a long way to streamline economic affairs but no one in the country is ready to manage the mismanagement. The policy makers will have to adopt a role model and it is easy to emulate Turkish or the Chinese model of economy.

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