JAKARTA: State revenues are estimated to fall between Rp 67 trillion (US$4.91 billion) and Rp 100 trillion this year, as declining global oil prices gnaw away at the state’s coffers.
Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said recently that the ministry had calculated the potential loss faced by the country as a result of slumping oil prices.
“According to our preliminary calculations, revenues will fall in the oil and gas sector and mineral and coal sector,” he said at the State Palace. “If oil prices fall to the level of $40 per barrel, we stand to lose about Rp 67 trillion in revenues. If they fall to $35 per barrel, we may lose almost Rp 100 trillion.”
Bambang added that the ministry was conducting another calculation to use to revise the 2016 state budget and would submit it to the House of Representatives for approval early in the second quarter.
Under the initial budget, the government sets the average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) assumption at $50 per barrel and expects to reap around Rp 1.82 quadrillion in total revenuess this year.
The budget also states that the government expects to obtain Rp 41.4 trillion in oil and gas income tax (PPh), Rp 78.62 trillion in oil and gas non-tax revenues (PNBP) and Rp 40.82 in mineral and coal non-tax revenues.
However, since the budget was passed last October, global oil prices have plunged.
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has dropped more than 33 percent to $30.89 per barrel, while that of Brent has slipped more than 31 percent to $34.06 per barrel, according to Bloomberg data.
Despite the bleak situation, a Bloomberg survey showed that several analysts believed the price would rebound by more than $15 per barrel by the end of 2016 as global oil surplus shifted to deficit, triggered by lower US shale output.
New York crude will reach $46 a barrel during the fourth quarter, while Brent in London will trade at $48 in the same period, the median of 17 estimates compiled by Bloomberg this year show.
Bambang said that tax income from the mooted implementation of a tax amnesty could offset revenue loss from lower oil prices.
The amnesty is expected to bring in at least Rp 60 trillion as tax evaders declare their assets and pay their arrears.
Meanwhile, the government is adamant that the turmoil in oil prices will not affect an upcoming sale of global Islamic bonds or sukuk.
It will reportedly hold road shows in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, Kuala Lumpur, Paris and London in March to attract investors for the sukuk.
Bambang said that the government might rely more on Western investors for the bonds if those in the Middle East proved unenthusiastic. “According to our analysis, investors’ appetite for the sukuk is still high.
“Asian investors, including those from the Middle East, have only played a bigger role [in Indonesia’s sukuk market] since last year. In previous years, it was always European and American investors.”
No details were immediately available regarding the amount of global sukuk that the government would sell in 2016, but the government has previously said that it will maintain the portion of foreign-denominated debt papers at between 24 percent and 30 percent of total gross bond issuance, which has been set at Rp 542 trillion.
The government sold $2 billion worth of sukuk last May, the largest sukuk harvest since 2009.
