BRUSSELS: While Europe remains preoccupied with the possibility of Grexit, a Greek departure from the euro, a potentially much more seismic event is moving closer by the day.
The idea that the United Kingdom might quit the European Union would have seemed fanciful even five years ago, but now it is a real possibility – and the country’s businesses, large and small, are beginning to panic.
Only one political party in the UK favours withdrawal – the UK Independence Party. But David Cameron’s Conservatives have been badly spooked by the rise of UKIP in the polls (and in the House of Commons, where the party now has two MPs thanks to deserting Tories who have changed sides).
The Prime Minister therefore promised last year that if re-elected, he would hold a referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the EU.
That referendum wouldn’t take place immediately – rather, Mr Cameron hopes to secure a new agreement with his European Union partners, securing concessions on issues that have become especially controversial in the UK in recent times. These range from disputes over fishing quotas to the extent that the European Court of Human Rights is able to impose its judgements on the UK.
Once the detail of this agreement is confirmed, Mr Cameron promises, he will ask the British people to decide. And that could spell disaster for the European Union project – surveys of voters’ views on the EU suggest the vote would be too close to call if held today, but Britons have certainly become increasingly sceptical about the merits of membership.
There is no guarantee, of course, that Mr Cameron will be re-elected and Labour has no plans for a referendum – it has flatly rejected the Conservative policy, in fact.
