PARIS: The Bank of France carried out a monthly survey of business leaders’ opinions throughout its network of branches at the end of September. It is conducted on a sample of more than 10,000 companies and is seen as generally reliable. The view is that the indicator will rise from 98 to 100 for September (historical average = 100, standard deviation = 10). This will mirror the small increase in both the PMIs and INSEE business climate indicator.
Our forecast figure of 100 would be consistent with the long-term trend GDP growth rate”, says Societe Generale.
Despite positives (a weaker euro, low oil prices and improved credit channels) French business leaders remain unconvinced that this growth is sustainable, in particular given the lack of reform in the labour market. Additionally, concerns regarding Chinese economic developments (and fears of a hard landing) mean that the indicator is unlikely to exceed the 100 mark.
