SEOUL: South Korean exports and imports on a year-on-year basis are likely to have rebounded in August, mainly due to base effects. But the value of exports in dollar terms are likely to have dropped to USD 39.5 billion in August from July’s USD 41 billion using the interim trade figure until 20 August, said Societe Generale in a research report.
Last year, exports fell sharply in August to USD 39.1 billion from USD 45.7 billion in July. This was due to the usual volatility in the shipbuilding sector where ship exports dropped by USD 1.7 billion from the previous month. Also, fewer number of working days because led to the sharp decline. Meanwhile, the value of imports in dollar terms is expected to have risen slightly to USD 34 billion in August from USD 33.4 billion in July. The year-on-year pickup in growth from July should mostly come from the decline in August last year.
Momentum of both export and import has stabilized, while the year-on-year growth of exports and imports are expected to hover around zero in the fourth quarter of 2016. The drop in trade surplus should be totally because of seasonal patterns as exports incline to decelerate in summer, added Societe Generale.
