JAKARTA: Indonesia shipping and forecast for 2015 shows growth rates picking up rate slightly at the port of Tanjung Priok, while they will decelerate a little at the smaller facility at Palembang. This reflects the slightly mixed cargo demand picture as the Indonesian economy is set to slow marginally, while foreign trade picks up pace compared to 2014.
Indonesia shipping and ports forecast for 2015 BMI is trimming back its forecast for Indonesian GDP growth in 2015 by half a percentage point to 5.5%, down from 6.0% previously. Indonesia is maintaining our estimate for 2014 growth at 5.1%.
Over the medium- to long-term, Indonesia continues to believe that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. Indonesia is encouraged to see continuing evidence of progress on this front.
The main reasons for being more alert about the outlook in 2015 are the combined effects of tighter monetary policy, the adjustment caused by the reduction of petrol irk price subsidies, and a mixed export outlook, influenced by the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Bank Indonesia (BI) has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy bias over recent quarters despite a falling rate of headline inflation.
