BANGKOK: Commerce Ministry now estimates there will be no overall export growth in 2015 over last year, Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya finally admitted on Wednesday.
The ministry’s data showed that Thai exports tumbled 7.87% year-on-year in June, resulting in a 4.87% contraction in the first half of this year. The Commerce Ministry has until now held tight on its 1.2% export growth prediction, which was cut from 4% in April, although just about every other agency has forecast a further fall in exports.
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Gen Chatchai said there were clear signs the global economy would not recover as earlier expected, and there was no upward trend in global oil prices, so the preliminary assessment was for zero growth in exports in 2015. He admitted the government’s measures to promote exports would not bring any actual improvement until early next year.
However, the ministry still believed the contraction in exports was less than some trade competitors were experiencing. Earlier this week, the Thai National Shippers’ Council predicted Thai exports were likely to shrink 4.2% this year to US$218 billion. In June, the council cut its export forecast to a 2% contraction from zero growth. In early July, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) forecast that exports would contract by 2% this year, down from an earlier predicted growth of 1%. Another cut by the FTI, on behalf of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, is possible.
The Commerce Ministry plans to call a meeting of its overseas commercial counsellors soon to reassess the situation.
