WASHINGTON: The United States has shipped a record volume of soybeans through the first half of the 2016/17 marketing year, but relative to the annual expectation, this year’s campaign is lagging those of years past. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that domestic soybean shipments totaled 4.42 million tonnes (162.3 million bushels) for the month of February, the lowest volume for the month since 2013 (reut.rs/2oeAtH5). In the first half of the current marketing year that began on Sept. 1, the United States – the world’s second-largest soybean supplier – exported 45.1 million tonnes (1.66 billion bushels) of the oilseed. This compares with 39.9 million for the same period in the previous year and 41.86 million in 2015 – the previous record holder for September through February shipments. The record soybean exports thus far in 2016/17 mask the fact that the United States might actually be behind pace in its efforts. The huge numbers thus far could prevent USDA from considerably increasing its export target late in the season, a practice to which traders have become accustomed in recent years.
Based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest 2016/17 export projection of 55.1 million tonnes (2.025 billion bushels), total shipments in the first half of the year account for 82 percent of the total soybean volume expected to be processed by Aug. 31. This fulfillment rate stands behind that of the previous four years relative to the actual shipments and annual expectations at the same point in time. The same rate last year was 87 percent, while it was closer to 91 percent in 2014 – and this is considering the springtime expectations for yearly exports, which is a moving target (reut.rs/2nIM3GB). The 2016/17 shipment pace has also lost momentum relative to previous years. Through December, this year’s fulfillment pace stood on average about 2 percent behind the last four years, and that gap opened up to just under 4 percent at January’s end. Through February, the average deficit exceeded 5 percent. Weekly port inspections – which can be used as a proxy to exports – imply that 2016/17 is even further behind years past. This year’s 85 percent annual fulfillment rate through March 30 is more than 7 percent below the average from the four years prior.
