ZURICH: The UBS Swiss consumption indicator rose to 1.56 points in September from a revised 1.50 points in August, the Swiss bank’s economists said on Wednesday. Sep ’17 Aug ’17 Sep ’16 Consumption indicator 1.56 1.50 (1.53) 1.47 Numbers in brackets show the value as was originally reported COMMENTS FROM THE UBS STATEMENT: The UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.56 points in September, signalling consumption growth slightly above the long-term average. The indicator was supported by significantly higher expectations in the retail industry, but UBS still projects consumer spending to grow 1.3 percent for the year overall. The consumption indicator currently shows slightly higher consumption growth than was forecast for the year overall by UBS Chief Investment Office Wealth Management. Due to weak employment growth in the first six months and the rise in inflation, consumption is only expected to increase 1.3 percent this year.
The indicator reflected improved expectations in the retail industry in September. The estimate for the business climate in the retail industry from the ETH Zurich Swiss Economic Institute crept into positive territory for the first time since January 2015. BACKGROUND ON THE INDICATOR: The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50 percent, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.
