KIEV: In the current season, wheat will likely keep its leading positions on the Ukrainian grain market in terms of both production and export volumes.
According to APK-Inform analysts, the export potential of wheat in 2015/16 MY totals 14.1 mln tonnes, which exceeds the corn export indices for the first time since 2011/12 MY. The active wheat exports strengthened the positions of Ukraine on the global market, and allowed developing new sales markets. But in 2016/17 MY the situation can dramatically change.
Difficult weather conditions in the autumn of 2015 did not allow to agrarians to realiaze planting works of winter wheat on a full scale. Therefore, the grain planted areas reduced to 5.98 mln ha, down 12% compared with the previous season (6.8 mln ha). According to APK-Inform analysts, in 2016 the harvested areas under winter wheat will total nearly 5.68 mln ha, which can provide the harvest volumes of 18.6 mln tonnes in terms of the average yield during 5 recent years at 3.27 t/ha.
It is expected that the planted areas under spring wheat will total nearly 190 thsd ha, with the average yield at 2.96 t/ha, which will form the production volumes at the level of 562 thsd tonnes.
Thus, on an aggregate basis the general wheat harvest will reach 19.2 mln tonnes, a decrease of 28% compared with the current season results (26.5 mln tonnes). It should be noted that it is rather pessimistic forecast, and it demonstrates the worst case scenario. In terms of favorable weather conditions, the country has all chances to get somewhat better yield indices and insignificant reduction of wheat harvest volumes.
In any case, in the season-2016/17 there is expected some reduction of the total supply of wheat in Ukraine, which will have its impact at formation of the grain export potential and development of prices. Also, qualitative indices of the new crop grain and the sufficient stocks of milling grain to meet the requirements of domestic grain processors and form of the export consignments, will play rather significant role in formation of the market situation.
