KIEV: The Ukrainian economy could resume growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, Economic Development and Trade Minister of Ukraine Aivaras Abromavicius said while speaking at IV CEE Investment Conference organized by CFA Institute in Kyiv on Friday.
“According to the ministry’s projections, growth in Q4 2015 on Q4 2014 could be around 1%,” the minister told Interfax-Ukraine. Speaking at the conference, he said that Ukraine’s economy should grow by 2.5% in 2016.
Abromavicius said that if in 2015 the main efforts of the government were aimed at macroeconomic stabilization, in 2016 the key task will be the resumption of economic growth. The government will use additional tools, in particular, to create an export-credit agency, trade representative offices, and to continue deregulation and carry out privatization.
As reported, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its outlook for the fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2015 to 11.5%, from the June 2015 figure of 9%.
“There is cautious hope that the economy reached the bottom in the middle of 2015 and that the output level will stabilize in the second half of the year amid domestic and regional risks which remain material,” the bank said it an updated forecast. According to the report, the estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2016 deteriorated from 3% to 2%.
Ukraine’s national budget for 2015 initially was built on the optimistic scenario foreseeing the decline of real GDP by 5.5% with inflation of 26.7% and growth of nominal GDP to UAH 1.85 trillion.
However, after the revision on September 17, the budget was based on a decline of 8.9% of real GDP with inflation of 45.8%, which allowed increasing the assessment for nominal GDP to UAH 1.981 trillion. Later, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) worsened the forecast for GDP fall this year to 11.5%, and the World Bank – to 12%. The NBU predicts that in 2016, Ukraine’s GDP would grow by 2.4% with inflation of 12%, and the government believes that GDP would grow by over 2% next year.
