NEW YORK: Import cargo volumes at the largest U.S. container gateways are forecast to rise 3.6 percent year-over-year this month as shippers gear up for the beginning of the peak season.
Imports for the year are expected to be up 4.2 percent over 2014 figures, according to the most recent Global Port Tracker report and forecast released Friday.
“Consumers might be out buying back-to-school supplies but toys and sweaters are starting to show up on the docks,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said in a statement.
Trans-Pacific shippers ability to tap low spot rates because of the imbalance of capacity and demand could end, the report warns, NRF and Hackett Associates, which produces the report for the group, warns. The spot rate to move a 20-foot container from Shanghai to the West Coast is down roughly 27 percent year-over-year, at $1,607, according to rates pulled from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index displayed on the JOC.com Market Data Hub.
With some lines having already already canceled sailings to counteract capacity imbalance, shippers should brace themselves for a rocky adjustment period, the report warns.
“We are seeing complete chaos on the high seas in terms of the amount of capacity available and the level of spot freight rates,” Hackett founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “One has to wonder why carriers cannot match supply to demand. The end result will likely be a highly volatile situation of freight rates moving up and down.”
Global Port Tracker, a joint project between Hackett and NRF, expects major U.S. ports to handle roughly 18 million 20-foot-equivalent-unit containers by year’s end, up 4.2 percent over 2014. JOC’s senior economist Mario Moreno puts the number higher at 6 percent after second quarter returns were slightly better than forecasts.
According to the most recent monthly figures from Global Port Tracker, major ports handled an estimated 1.59 million TEUs in July, up 6 percent year-over-year. That’s less than Global Port Tracker’s initial forecast: earlier in the year, year-over-year gains in July were project closer to 7.3 percent.
“There are still some lingering congestion issues,” said Gold, “but retailers are working with their supply chain partners to make sure all of that merchandise flows smoothly to store shelves.”
Month by month, August is forecast at 1.57 million TEUs, up 3.6 percent; September at 1.59 million TEUs, down 0.1 percent; October at 1.58 million TEUs, up 1.2 percent; November at 1.45 million TEUs, up 4.5 percent, and December at 1.4 million TEUs, down 2.8 percent.
