HANOI: Vietnamese shares may continue to rise this week with improving investor confidence after they received positive news from the government and global markets, brokerage securities wrote in their weekly forecast. The benchmark VN Index on the HCM Stock Exchange on Friday gained 1.1 per cent to close the week at 598.37 points. The southern index struggled to rise 1 per cent from the previous week.
The HNX Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange on Friday edged up 0.5 per cent to finish at 80.68 points, but fell 0.3 per cent in total during the week. “Higher investor confidence helped lift the two local indices last week as investors were optimistic about the chance that markets could continue to advance,” Sài Gòn-Hà Nội Securities Corp (SHS) wrote in its report.
Investor confidence improved after the US central bank held unchanged its interest rates for a third time this year, easing fears over a net foreign selling in emerging markets, SHS said. Such fears had put pressure on Việt Nam’s central bank to weaken the Vietnamese đồng against the US dollar before the Fed’s final decision was made.
Last week, the daily reference mid-point rate set by Việt Nam’s central bank jumped VNĐ24 to VNĐ21,875 for a dollar from a stable rate of VNĐ21,851 in the previous week. The mid-point rate remained above VNĐ21,870 for a dollar the whole week until it fell sharply to VND21,842 for a dollar on Friday. A sharp fall in the mid-point rate also forced foreign investors to record a total net buying value of VNĐ285.7 billion (US$12.7 million) on both local exchanges last week, which was considered an important factor that helped boost local investor confidence.
Such high investor confidence lifted financial firms such as Vietcombank (VCB), the Bank for Investment and Development of Việt Nam (BID), Sài Gòn-Hà Nội Bank (SHB), Military Bank (MBB), FPT Corp (FPT), and insurance company Bảo Việt Holdings (BVH).
Meanwhile, investor sentiment may also be bolstered as investors received positive reactions from the government on improving the policies in Việt Nam, and the country’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in April hit the highest point in the last nine months, signalling better production and better consumption for the economy.
Meanwhile, investors should be wary as oil prices have pulled back from their highest prices since the beginning of the year, SHS said. Oil prices have declined on the global exchanges on Monday and Tuesday while Việt Nam’s stock markets were off for holidays, US stockpiles could be rising and Iraq’s exports recorded a record high last month.
US crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Tuesday fell 4 per cent in the last three days to trade at $44.21 a barrel and London-traded Brent crude has scaled back 5.9 per cent to trade at $45.32 a barrel. US crude and London-traded Brent crude on Thursday reached their highest prices at $46.03 a barrel and $48.14 a barrel, respectively.
Energy stocks were already on downward stick last week such as PetroVietnam Drilling and Well Service Corp (PVD), PetroVietnam Coating Corp (PVB) and PetroVietnam Technical Service Corp (PVS). Trading liquidity improved from the previous week. Both local markets exchanged more than 186.8 million shares each day, worth VNĐ3.3 trillion – an increase of 7.6 per cent in trading volume and 15 per cent in trading value.
