HANOI: Vietnam’s coffee sales have slowed in the past week, trailing a fall in global futures prices, and exports from the world’s largest robusta producer in July will depend on global prices, traders said on Tuesday.
Vietnam has exported 985,600 tonnes (16.43 million 60-kg bags) of coffee between October 2014 and June 2015, down 25 percent from a year earlier and about 60 percent of the 2014/2015 crop harvest, according to the Vietnamese government and USDA data.
July coffee exports could be in a wide range between 80,000 tonnes and 130,000 tonnes, depending on ICE robusta futures prices, after an estimated shipment of 110,000 tonnes last month, traders said.
“Exporters have signed deals with delivery of at least 80,000 to 90,000 tonnes for July,” said Phan Hung Anh, deputy director of Anh Minh Co, a major private export firm in Daklak, Vietnam’s top growing province.
If London futures revisit $1,800 a tonne or more, July’s shipment from Vietnam could rise to 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes, he said.
Two other traders in Ho Chi Minh City forecast the monthly shipment at 100,000 to 110,000 tonnes. ICE September contract closed down $37, or 2.1 percent, at $1,711 a tonne on Monday, having lost 4.5 percent since June 29.
“There’s been no trading in the past week,” Anh said by telephone from Buon Ma Thuot, the capital city of Daklak.
Vietnamese robusta beans fell to 36,100-36,800 dong ($1.66-$1.69) per kg on Tuesday in Daklak, from 38,000-38,200 dong a week ago. Premiums of Vietnamese robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken widened to $35-$50 a tonne to the September contract, from premiums of $15-$20 a tonne last Tuesday.
Bids stood at par or a premium of $10/tonne. Rain has now become regular in the Central Highlands coffee belt, enabling coffee cherries to grow, traders said.
“There is no more concern about weather impacts on production,” said Bach Thanh Tuan, head of the Daklak-based Community Development Center, which helps coffee farmers maintain sustainable production.
The dry weather early this year has ruined 655 hectares of Daklak’s coffee, or about 0.3 percent of its total plantation, state media on Tuesday cited the Daklak government’s data as saying.
Vietnam’s next 2015/2016 crop could produce 28.6 million bags, up 1.4 percent from the current season, the USDA has said.
