HONG KONG: If Hong Kong was added to a table of China’s top 20 container ports, it would slot in at number four both in terms of cumulative throughput this year and in May volumes, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange.
Fourth place is a position Hong Kong port knows well, having spent the last couple of years as the world’s fourth busiest container port. The number four is considered unlucky in Chinese culture, and if the port’s throughput slide continues, by the end of the year Hong Kong will likely be feeling the effects of this bad luck, having been dumped into fifth place by Busan.
The top 20 ports in China handled 15.6 million 20-foot containers in May and 75.5 million containers in the first five months of the year, growing at an average of 3 percent year-over-year. However, in the last two months that growth has slowed to just over 1 percent.
Shanghai remained at the top of the table with some daylight between its terminals and those of second placed Shenzhen. Container volumes were up two percent in Shanghai that has handled 14.95 from January through May. Interestingly, the five-month throughput was similar to the entire annual volumes handled by world number 10 port Tianjin.
Shenzhen’s throughput was 9.5 million TEUs in the year to the end of May, but growth was up 3 percent compared to the same five months last year. The Pearl River Delta is more exposed to foreign trade than the other major regions of China, and that is reflected in the port data.
Most of the ports have slowed in the off season, but those with a strong domestic focus have been further restricted as China’s internal consumption slows. With their export-focus, PRD ports are growing faster through the slack season than China’s ports to the north.
In the SSE’s top 20, Ningbo-Zhoushan, a generally robust port located not far south of Shanghai, registered flat growth over the last couple of months, while Qingdao in the northern Bohai Rim region, saw throughput slip into negative figures year-over-year.
Guangzhou in the southern Guangdong Province was up 3 percent in May compared to April volumes, while Tianjin in the Bohai Rim was up 1 percent. Dalian was the exception among the northern ports with a 3 percent growth in volumes in May over those handled in April.
There appears to be little excitement as the container shipping industry moves closer to the traditional peak season period from July through September. Goldman Sachs said in a research note to customers that while Asia-Europe headhaul container trade volumes declined 3.3 percent year-over-year from January through April, it estimated volume growth had recovered to be flat in May based on the current load factors.
“Our global macro research team expects European consumer spending growth to remain steady over 2015 but pick-up in 2016, which is in line with our assumptions of a slightly higher volume growth in 2015, and further volume growth in 2016,” the bank noted.
In contrast, trans-Pacific trade routes have seen stronger volume growth, up 5 percent in May compared to the same month last year, with load factors of 90-95 percent against 80-85 percent over March and April.
Goldman said that has helped support flat to slightly higher annual contract rates fixed so far this year (contracted cargo generally accounts for 50-80 percent of the market). “We believe such a resilient rate structure will help margins turn around on trans-Pacific trade routes this year given the decline in bunker fuel prices and an easing of congestion cost issues on the West Coast,” the bank said.
U.S. consumer spending it predicted would grow steadily at 2-2.3 percent per quarter until the end of 2016.