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Home Op-Ed Features & Analyses

World economic outlook

byDr. Aftab Afzal
24/01/2015
in Features & Analyses, Op-Ed
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According to the World Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects report, the developing economies across the globe are likely to reap the benefits of soft oil prices while low interest rates and receding domestic headwinds in several large emerging markets will also have positive impact on the world economic situation.The report adds that the global economy will expand by 3 percent this year, 3.3 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017 while the developing countries are expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2015 and 5.4 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively.However, the people at the helm of affairs in Islamabad are bemoaningthe decliningoil prices which have drastically curtailed the government revenue.

The World Bank report has given a call to the developing countries to use all their resources to support social sector programs in the wake ofuncertain economic environment. There is a need to introduce structural reforms with special emphasis on welfare plans to help the poor.There is also need to remove bottlenecks in the way of private sector investment which has the potential to create jobs and alleviate poverty.There are several hurdles in the recovery of the global economy due to increasing divergent trends and implications. The report also says that financial crisis are lingering on in some economies in Asia with accommodative monetary policy while the labour markets in the United States and the United Kingdom are gradually picking up momentum.However, China is managing slowdown with restricting its growth to 7.1 percent this year.The rate of the growth was 7.4 percent in 2014, will be 7 percent in 2016 and 6.9 percent in 2017. The oil price will bring boom for some economies, but bane for the others.

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According to the report,growth has shown an increase of5.5 percent in 2014 from a 10-year low of 4.9 percent in 2013. And that the regional growth is expected to rise by 6.8 percent until 2017, as reforms ease supply constraints in India, political tensions subside in Pakistan, remittances remain robust in Bangladesh and Nepal, and demand for the region’s exports firms increased.

In Pakistan, the government is struggling to come out of the crisis after crisis situationsand economic priorities are misplaced somewhere within the official intricacies. Terrorism, corruption and energy crisis are not only breaking the back of the national economy but also of the common man. The main problem before the government is to take a start and it is not finding a starting point. Instead of counting gains of the depreciated oil prices, the government is calculating losses in terms of taxes and duties.

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