BEIJING: China’s soyabean imports are likely to reach 22 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, up 18 percent on a year ago, an official think-tank estimate published on Friday said, indicating healthy demand from the world’s top buyer of the oilseed.
The projected import volume, largely from the United States, is still down on 24.54 million tonnes imported during the third quarter, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).
Strong soyaoil demand in coming months amid tight stocks of the edible oil should keep crushing volumes high at an average of 7 million tonnes a month, it said. Chinese crushers processed 7 million to 7.5 million tonnes a month on average in the third quarter.
Demand for soyameal would come under pressure from a slow recovery of hog stocks, it added. China’s soya imports during 2015/16 (October-September) were forecast to be steady on the previous year’s level of 78.36 million tonnes, as a crackdown by Beijing on the use of genetically modified soya in the food industry would cap import growth.
Beijing has clamped down on illegal sales of cheap GMO varieties to food companies, especially in the northern province of Shandong, the country’s largest distribution centre for imported soya, the centre said earlier this year.
Animal feed mills are also likely to reduce the use of soyameal as a substitute for corn, unlike the previous year, following a recent fall in domestic corn prices, it said. Favourable prices for protein-rich soyameal over the past year had prompted mills to replace about 1.8 million tonnes of corn with soyameal.
Soyameal also replaced 2.4 million tonnes of other meals, including cottonseed and rapeseed meal, over the past year but room for further growth this year was limited, it said.
