FRANCE: Earth could warm 2.7 degrees Celsius this century, warned a review yesterday which judged national carbon-cutting pledges insufficient to stave off worst-case-scenario predictions for climate change.
The goal of limiting overall planet warming to 2.0 C (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels is still out of reach, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis found — though there are signs it may be inching into view.
In rare good news, 2.7 C was a “significant improvement” from the CAT’s previous forecast of 3.1 C by 2100, said a statement issued by the quartet of research bodies which compiled the report.
But the pledges submitted ahead of an informal October 1 UN deadline would still yield “global warming well above the 2.0 C limit set by the global community”, said a CAT statement.
“This reflects the less than sufficient climate targets submitted by many governments.”
The UN’s climate science panel says a world even 1.0 C or 2.0 C warmer would face “considerable” risks, including more severe floods and droughts, a land-gobbling sea-level rise, the spread of disease and food shortages — all of which may increase global political instability.
The tracker analysed country plans for curbing climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs, which will form the backbone of a universal climate rescue pact to be inked at a UN conference in Paris in December.
Just over 140 countries out of 195 negotiating the global agreement, which will enter into force in 2020, had filed their contributions by Thursday — setting either five- or 10-year emissions targets for themselves.
Representing nearly 80 per cent of global emissions, the pledges included top three polluters China, the United States and the 28-member European Union.
The CAT prediction also included estimated numbers for fourth-placed India, which has not yet formally pledged, but has made public statements on its intentions.
This was the first time since 2009, when the CAT analysis began, that the forecast has dipped under 3.0 C — a change caused in large part by China’s pledge, which could see its emissions of carbon dioxide, the most ubiquitous greenhouse gas, peak in the late 2020s.
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