ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and the IMF’s review talks have so far remained inconclusive after breaches committed by Islamabad on different fronts which the Fund staff termed as ‘deviations’ from the IMF agreed.
The IMF staff also raised serious objections over the Prime Minister’s Relief Package for slashing down petrol, diesel, and electricity prices as well as granting tax amnesty for the industrial sector. The IMF had slapped the condition that Pakistan will not grant any tax amnesty and it is part of a continuous structural benchmark. However, Islamabad breached this continuous structural benchmark which now requires a waiver from the IMF’s Executive Board for completion of the 7th review and release of the next tranche.
For striking consensus on Memorandum of Financial and Economic Policies (MEFP), the IMF has asked Islamabad to jack up discount rate, allow free movement of the exchange rate, slash down Kamyab Pakistan Program (KPP) and reverse relief package measures to align it with prudent financial management. The review talks were scheduled for two weeks and are expected to conclude on coming Wednesday. With emerging of new realities on the macroeconomic front, the IMF has opposed the PM’s Relief Package under which the petrol and diesel prices were reduced by Rs 10 per liter and electricity prices by Rs 5 per unit from March to June 2022. The government has envisaged disbursing loans of Rs 407 billion under much hyped KPP but the IMF is asking to slash down this amount for two years period till June 2023.
Amid rising political temperature, it was expected that both sides would not be able to strike staff-level agreement under 7th review so the parleys will continue lingering on till the political dust is settled in the wake of no confidence move against Prime Minister Imran Khan. As Pakistan and the IMF team have so far failed to strike a consensus on the MEFP mainly because of rising twin deficit projections, the prescriptions for tackling the budget deficit and current account deficit could not be evolved on policy measures in the shape of tightening monetary and fiscal positions. The IMF had envisaged the current account deficit at $12.2 billion on eve of the 6th review but it had already touched $11.6 billion for the first seven months of the current fiscal year. The budget deficit is all set to go up beyond 7 percent of GDP, equivalent to Rs 4.4 trillion, the highest ever absolute figure during the current financial year. In order to curtail the twin deficits, the IMF’s prescriptions clearly illustrate tightening of fiscal and monetary policies as well as exchange rate adjustments in the range of Rs 185-190 against the US dollar.
On the economic front, the IMF is also coming up with a prescription of tough prior actions in the shape of rising twin deficits including the budget deficit and the current account deficit. The indicative target for Net International Reserves might be another thorny issue between the two sides.
