KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s services exports should rise by an average of 8% annually over the next 15 years, with tourism continuing to contribute over a third of its overall growth.
HSBC Bank Malaysia Bhd’s head of commercial banking, Andrew Sill, said India was forecast to be the fastest-growing destination for Malaysian services exports, with average growth projected of 11% yearly.
“Malaysia’s services export growth would remain dominated by tourism, education and health services,” he told reporters on HSBC’s New Trade Report in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday.
Sill said HSBC and research partner, Oxford Economics, from analyses of bilateral trade of 25 key trading nations, found growth in services exports outstripping growth in goods trade since the global financial crisis.
This was partly due to spending on services being less affected by fluctuations in economic activities than spending on goods, he said.
He said long-term outlook for Malaysia remained positive with growth supported by favourable demographics and infrastructure investment and urged businesses to explore opportunities linked to services.
On the goods export forecast, the report said, China’s demand for Malaysian goods should remain solid, rising by more than 9% annually, with China overtaking Singapore as Malaysia’s largest export destination from 2016-2030.
As Malaysia moved towards a developed nation status, machinery and equipment would be key drivers of goods trade with import growth forecast to gradually accelerate to average 10% yearly from 2021-2030, it said.
The report said growth would be largely driven by an import surge of about 13% per year from Vietnam, China, India and Indonesia.
Indonesia was forecast to replace South Korea as Malaysia’s fifth top import origin after Japan, US, Singapore and China in 2030, it said.
On the ringgit, Sill said, the bank’s view was that it would hit 4.50 against the US dollar this year.
