ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s annual petroleum import bill exceeded the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast during fiscal year 2025-26 after a sharp surge in global crude oil prices triggered by heightened tensions in the Middle East.
Official documents showed Pakistan’s oil import bill reached $16.86 billion in FY2025-26, exceeding the IMF’s projection of $15.28 billion by $1.58 billion.
According to the documents, petroleum imports rose 5.76% year-on-year, reflecting both higher international oil prices and the country’s continued dependence on imported energy to meet domestic demand.
The increase came after oil markets were rattled by the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, as well as concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz a strategic waterway through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. The uncertainty pushed benchmark crude prices sharply higher during the closing months of the fiscal year, increasing Pakistan’s import costs.
For the current fiscal year 2026-27, the IMF has projected Pakistan’s petroleum import bill at $16.31 billion. However, analysts believe the estimate could come under pressure if geopolitical tensions persist and global oil prices remain elevated.
The rise in the import bill has also translated into higher domestic fuel prices, with petrol and high-speed diesel reaching record levels in recent weeks. The higher energy bill is expected to add pressure on inflation, widen the country’s import bill and increase demand for foreign exchange.
Pakistan imports the bulk of its crude oil and petroleum products, making the economy highly vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy prices. Petroleum remains one of the country’s largest import categories, alongside machinery and edible oil, and plays a key role in determining the trade deficit and current account balance.
Despite the higher petroleum import bill, Pakistan’s external sector remained relatively stable during FY2025-26, supported by record workers’ remittances and tighter import management. However, economists caution that a prolonged period of elevated oil prices could complicate efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability and meet fiscal and external sector targets agreed with the IMF.
According to official documents, Pakistan’s oil imports stood at $16.86 billion during FY2025-26, compared with the IMF’s earlier estimate of $15.28 billion for the year. The Fund’s latest projections suggest imports could remain above $16 billion in FY2026-27, although the final outcome will largely depend on global oil prices and domestic energy demand.
