ALABAMA: The U.S. economy remains on course for steady growth, something that should help Arizona in the year ahead, a pair of economists told metro Phoenix business leaders. The slowing Chinese economy has shaken financial markets here but should not significantly affect what is a relatively healthy labor market, said Jim Huntzinger, chief investment officer of Oklahoma-based BOK Financial, parent of Bank of Arizona.
At the same time, Arizona’s slower-than-usual recovery from the Great Recovery figures to get incrementally better in 2016, said economist Elliott Pollack, CEO of the Scottsdale-based company that bears his name.Both assessments offered a measure of calm after weeks of tumult for Wall Street investors and as many anxiously look to see if the Federal Reserve begins raising its benchmark interest rate later this month, as it has signaled for months.
Pollack emphasized that Arizona has done relatively well in its recovery but hasn’t been able to recapture the white-hot growth it had just before the housing bust.The state, as well as metro Phoenix, is held back because an influx of new residents especially from outside the U.S. remains below its long-term average. Even so, the local economy continues to improve, he said.
“Essentially, if you like ’15, you’re going to like ’16,” Pollack said. “There’s no irrational exuberance.”In fact, consumer spending, the bedrock of the U.S. economy remains disappointing in view of a year of relatively cheap gas. “Oil prices have saved consumers a lot,” Pollack said. “In 2005, we imported 60 percent of our oil. We’re down to about 21 percent. At $50 a barrel, that is essentially $420 million a day.”The Arizona Center for Law and Society is under construction.
