LONDON: Global equity markets moved higher Monday after last week’s painful worldwide sell-off, with attention focused on the US presidential election and a backdrop of rising coronavirus infections across the United States and Europe.
After a hesitant start, Europe rebounded sharply as dealers shrugged off a growing number of virus lockdowns in the region, including in England, though analysts cautioned against complacency.
London finished the day with a gain of 1.4 percent. Frankfurt and Paris each rose by around two percent.
Wall Street was higher in midday trading, with the Dow gaining 1.5 percent.
Oil prices turned higher after days of losses on worries about demand as traders hoped that the OPEC cartel and its allies might hold off on planned production increases.
– ‘Encouraging rebound’ – “It’s an encouraging rebound that we are seeing — but I am not getting carried away yet,” Oanda analyst Craig Erlam told AFP.
“There are so many major risk events over the next few days,” he warned, adding that a contested US vote would be “the worst possible outcome”.
Asia was buoyed by upbeat Chinese PMI manufacturing data published over the weekend as the world’s second biggest economy regains strength.
“Perhaps the PMI data is giving these markets a bit of a bump, but even this is not anything to get too excited about,” Erlam said.
“Europe is going back into lockdown and it may just be a matter of time until the US follows suit.” After months of rallying from March lows, equities were brought to a juddering halt in October as virus cases surged, forcing European governments to re-impose tough lockdown measures that plunged a tentative economic rebound into chaos.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the weekend said England would implement a four-week lockdown from Thursday to temper a second wave, with similar measures taken by Austria, France, Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Germany, Italy and Spain are also enforcing stricter containment measures.
– This week ‘could spell mayhem’ – The disease is also rampant across the US, which last week recorded a record number of infections, a further blow to President Donald Trump’s hopes of re-election on Tuesday.
The Republican president continues to trail Democrat opponent Joe Biden in national and battleground state polls.
“This week would have been chaotic for investors at any rate, but viewed through the intensifying pandemic lens as Covid-19 rages in the West, it could spell mayhem,” said Axi strategist, Stephen Innes.
Polls suggest a Biden win could come with a Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress, which would likely see a huge stimulus spending package passed. A win for Republicans in either of the races is expected to result in a much smaller sum.
There is also the possibility that there is no clear outcome after polls close on Tuesday evening as the massive number of ballots sent by mail could take days or even weeks to count, and those votes could be contested.
“If the vote isn’t conclusive, there is likely to a protracted period of volatility on the stock markets until the outcome is decided,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Analyst Patrick J. O’Hare at Briefing.com said that rising equities Monday should not be interpreted as “a tacit message of comfort about the election outcome”, but is more likely investors snapping up bargains after last week’s sharp losses.
– Key figures around 1630 GMT – London – FTSE 100: UP 1.4 percent at 5,654.97 points (close) Frankfurt – DAX 30: UP 2.0 percent at 11,788.28 (close) Paris – CAC 40: UP 2.1 percent at 4,691.14 (close) EURO STOXX 50: UP 2.1 percent at 3,019.82 New York – Dow: UP 1.5 percent at 26,910.46 Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.4 percent at 23,295.48 (close) Hong Kong – Hang Seng: UP 1.5 percent at 24,460.01 (close) Shanghai – Composite: FLAT at 3,225.11 (close) Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1635 from $1.1647 at 2100 GMT Dollar/yen: UP at 104.83 Yen from 104.66 yen Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2896 from $1.2947 Euro/pound: UP at 90.23 pence from 89.96 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $35.96 per barrelBrent North Sea crude: UP 0.5 percent at $38.12
