KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s ringgit-denominated export receipts is expected to grow at a rate of 5.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-O-Y) in the fourth quarter this year, despite weakening global trade, and implying full-year export growth of 1.2 per cent.
Kenanga Research, in a research note today said the lower export numbers in the fourth quarter last year provided a low base for comparison, which is expected to help maintain growth in exports in the fourth quarter 2015.
“Given that the average unit prices of crude petroleum started to fall in September 2014 and that of liquefied natural gas five months later, the Y-O-Y decline in oil & gas exports should taper off further in the fourth quarter 2015 and first quarter 2016, giving a boost to export growth numbers,” it said.
Export gains in the third quarter indicated an end to the deterioration in export growth seen in first half 2015, mostly due to a weaker local currency boosting ringgit-denominated receipts.
Imports, however, were forecasted to contract by 0.2 per cent for the full-year, Kenanga said.
“The trade and current account balance should continue to have no trouble remaining comfortably in surplus and our gross domestic product growth estimate for third quarter 2015 is unchanged at 5.1 per cent Y-O-Y,” it added.
