MOSCOW: Russian grain exports in July and August may be lower than previously expected after rain delayed harvesting, Sovecon agriculture analysts said on Wednesday. Russia, a top wheat exporter to North Africa and the Middle East, has harvested 1.4 million tonnes of grain, down from 3.5 million tonnes a year earlier, because of heavy rain in southern regions in late June.
“Grains have been harvested from the area of 378,000 hectares, the lowest level in three years,” SovEcon said in a note on its website. It expects the lag to increase in the coming days because many farmers are unable to start harvesting due to the wet soil. Some farmers will also need extra time to dry harvested grain and its quality may be affected.
July grains exports could total 2.0 million to 2.5 million tonnes, down from the previously expected 2.8 million, Andrey Sizov, the head of SovEcon, told Reuters. Exports in August could be in a range of 3.0-3.5 million tonnes, compared with 3.8 million expected earlier. Grain yields are currently at 3.82 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.65 tonnes a year ago, but they are declining faster than in 2014 and will be lower than last year during the first days of July, the consultancy said. SovEcon is keeping its 2015 grain crop forecast unchanged at 98 million tonnes but could downgrade it soon, Sizov said.
